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No Snowmaggeddon Forecast For 2011

by @ 5:22 pm on October 21, 2010. Filed under Virginia, Washington DC, Weather

Residents of the Metro Washington, D.C. area afraid that the coming winter will bring a repeat of last year’s dual blizzards can calm down:

The National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather released their winter outlooks this morning and both agree the odds are strongly stacked against a historically snowy winter in the D.C. metro region.

“I’m not a betting man, but I wouldn’t be betting for a very snowy winter [in Washington],” said NWS’s Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Halpert and CPC expect the development of a strong La Nina – perhaps in the top five on record — favoring storm tracks west of the mid-Atlantic across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. That kind of storm track often brings a wintry mix of precipitation to the metro region.

Indeed AccuWeather also forecasts La Nina to strengthen, favoring “harsh conditions across the northern tier of the United States and drier-than-normal conditions throughout the southern tier” leaving the metro region near or just south of the “wintry mess” battle zone.

Though AccuWeather expects less snow in the region overall, AccuWeather chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi anticipates winter may begin with a bang for much of the East.

“It wouldn’t be surprising if at the end of the December much of the eastern U.S. was similar to what it was last December,” said Bastardi.

Of course, last December the D.C. area experienced “Snowpocalypse”, its greatest December snow event on record (16.4″ fell at Reagan National Airport). But Bastardi – presumably recognizing that – then said “I don’t think quite as much snowfall.”

Of course, they could be wrong.

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